WIREDGOV

Martin Sartorius, Lead Economist responds to latest inflation data for March 2026

“Inflation ticked up in March, as the energy shock from the Iran conflict began to feed through to the UK economy. We expect the conflict to put upward pressure on households’ fuel, energy, and food bills in the coming months. While risks are tilted to the upside, at this stage it seems unlikely that inflation will rise to the same extent as during the previous energy shock in 2022.

“We continue to expect that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting, as it waits to see how the inflationary impact of the Iran conflict develops. Persistently weak domestic activity and a looser labour market imply that rate hikes are relatively less likely in the near term, but they could still be a possibility if the conflict escalates significantly.”  

Labour market overview, UK: April 2026