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The Fiscal Framework Outturn Report 2026 publishes outturn and reconciliation information for Scottish Income Tax, Scottish Landfill Tax, Land and Buildings Transaction Tax and devolved Social Security benefits, as well as updates on borrowing and the Scotland Reserve.

Introduction

This is the ninth Fiscal Framework Outturn Report published by the Scottish Government. It is intended to support pre-Budget scrutiny, as set out in the Written Agreement with the Scottish Parliament[1].

It contains the following information:

• Outturn data for Scottish devolved tax revenues and social security benefits expenditure (including comparison of outturn with forecast)
• Calculation of outturn Block Grant Adjustments (BGAs) and comparison with forecast.
• Net effect on Budget (revenue/expenditure minus BGA) for each tax and social security benefit relative to forecast.
• Implications of reconciliations for the subsequent financial year
• Commentary on latest available outturn data for income tax, devolved taxes and social security.
• Payments into the Reserve and withdrawals from the Reserve
• The balance of the Scottish Reserve at the start and end of the previous financial year (with explanations for reasons for withdrawal or source of surplus).
• Borrowing undertaken during the past financial year, and assessment of how far the Scottish Government remains below its various different borrowing limits.
• Implications of borrowing in terms of estimated profile of future repayments.

Terminology used in this document

The Scottish Government relies on forecasts when setting each Budget, and the UK Government also relies on forecasts when determining BGAs. When information about actual revenues and expenditure becomes available – known as ‘outturn data’ – subsequent Budgets are adjusted to account for the difference between forecast and outturn data, known as forecast error. This process is known as a ‘reconciliation’ and can involve additions or reductions to Scotland’s Block Grant.

Reconciliations are a normal part of the Fiscal Framework – they serve the purpose of correcting for forecast error and do not reflect tax or social security performance. Both the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) and Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) publish annual Forecast Evaluation Reports which review how their forecasts compared with outturn and the reasons for variance.

Outturn figures are, at times, first published on a provisional basis before a final figure is published. Final outturn is then used to calculate final reconciliations, which are applied to Scotland’s block grant. A full explanation of the reconciliation process, BGAs and the calculation of Scotland’s Block Grant can be found in the Technical Note on the Fiscal Framework.

Data used in this document

The forecasts of the BGAs are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts of UK tax revenues and social security benefits expenditure made at the UK Spring Forecast on 3 March 2026. BGAs are based on the forecasts for taxes and social security benefits where the UK Government retains responsibility for them, which is England and Northern Ireland for tax (except for Aggregates Tax, which is England, Northern Ireland and Wales) and England and Wales for social security.

In previous years the SFC have published tax revenue and social security expenditure forecasts alongside the Scottish Government’s Medium-Term Financial Strategy publication (MTFS), which have also been used to inform the Outturn Report. As there was no MTFS in May 2026, the latest SFC forecasts were published alongside the Scottish Budget 2026-27 on 13 January 2026.

This year’s Outturn Report therefore compares tax revenue and social security forecasts for Scotland from January 2026 with BGAs based on forecasts for rUK from March 2026.

Updated forecasts from the SFC will be published alongside the Scottish Budget 2027-28. The OBR will publish its next set of forecasts alongside the UK Government’s Autumn Budget 2026 on 28 October 2026, which will allow for the calculation of updated forecasts of BGAs.

It is prescribed in the Budget Process Session 6 Agreement between the Scottish Government and the Finance and Public Administration Committee that the Fiscal Framework Outturn Report is published in September each year, as was recommended by the Budget Process Review Group. Due to third party publication schedules, some final outturn is unavailable before the publication of the FFOR. When final outturn is not published before the Outturn Report, provisional data is used.

Whether the data is final or is provisional is detailed as follows, with a list of outturn sources outlined in Table 20 in Chapter 11:

Final:

• HMRC 2024-25 outturn data for both Scottish Income Tax revenues and the equivalent revenues for the rest of the UK.
• 2025-26 outturn revenue data for Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) and UK Landfill Tax, which feed into the BGA calculations for Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) and Scottish Landfill Tax (SLfT).
• 2025-26 revenue outturn data for Fines, Forfeitures and Fixed Penalties. It has been published as part of the Scottish Government’s 2025-26 Scottish Consolidated Fund Accounts.
• Outturn BGAs for LBTT, SLFT and social security benefits in 2025-26. These are based on the latest mid-2025 population estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for England and Wales, National Records of Scotland (NRS) for Scotland and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) for Northern Ireland. Alongside the mid-2025 estimates, ONS published revisions to their mid-2022 to mid-2024 population estimates and NRS published revisions to their mid-2022 to mid-2023 population estimates, meaning the 2024-25 income tax outturn BGA is also based on the latest population estimates.

Provisional

• 2025-26 LBTT and SLfT revenue outturn data. Final audited data will be published as part of Revenue Scotland’s Annual Reports and Accounts towards the end of the calendar year 2026.
• 2025-26 Social Security benefits expenditure. Final outturn will be published as part of the Social Security Scotland Annual Report and Accounts, which is expected in the Autumn.
• UK Government Social Security benefits expenditure outturn data has also been used to calculate the BGAs. Final outturn will be made available when the Local Authority, Parliamentary, and Country and Regional Tables 2025/26 are published later this year.

Historically, the difference between provisional and final outturn data has varied. In recent years the differences were small when comparing provisional outturn to final outturn for tax revenue, social security expenditure and BGAs. The exception was 2022 where the change was much larger. Further detail is provided in Annex A.

Reconciliations set out in this document

The following reconciliations have been calculated and included in this report:

• Final BGA and revenue reconciliations for 2024-25 Scottish Income Tax;
• Final BGA reconciliations for 2025-26 LBTT and SLfT, and;
• Provisional BGA reconciliations for 2025-26 Social Security benefits

Due to the use of provisional data, the overall reconciliation applying to the Scottish Budget 2027-28 cannot be finalised yet, but will be confirmed in the Scottish Budget 2027-28. The difference between reconciliations detailed in previous outturn reports and the reconciliation applied to the Scottish Budget is detailed in Annex B.

When final outturn isn’t available within two months of the Scottish Budget, the Scottish Government has the option to use provisional outturn and defer the impact to the following Budget. The £361.5 million reconciliation outlined in the Fiscal Framework Outturn Report 2025 was applied to the Scottish Budget 2026-27, but this included provisional social security outturn. When final outturn data was applied, this reduced the overall reconciliation requirement to £351.1 million. The resulting negative £10.5 million impact was deferred to the Scottish Budget 2027-28.

Considerations for Scottish Budget 2027-28

The following points are relevant for 2027-28 Budget considerations:

• The total provisional reconciliation required in the 2027-28 Budget will be negative £761.9 million. This figure includes final reconciliations for 2024-25 Income Tax revenue and BGA, final reconciliations of the BGAs for 2025-26 LBTT and SLfT, and provisional reconciliations of the BGAs for 2025-26 Social Security benefits.
• This reconciliation doesn’t include the deferred reconciliation for social security outturn discussed in paragraphs 14 and 15. This deferral will increase the negative reconciliation by £10.5 million.
• This negative reconciliation is largely driven by an Income Tax reconciliation of £720.5 million. The combined reconciliation for LBTT, SLfT and Social Security benefits expenditure is negative £41.5 million.
• The provisional residual balance on the reserve for 2025-26 is £360.6 million.
• The Scottish Government’s capital debt was £2.53 billion by the end of 2025-26, 19 per cent below the £3.14 billion limit.

Corrections to outturn

Since Autumn Statement 2022, several changes to outturn have been identified. SG and HMT will reach a decision on the handling of this outturn and further information will be published in due course. As previous BGAs are a component of new BGA calculations, outturn changes will be reflected in future BGA calculations regardless of the decision on whether a reconciliation will flow from these changes to outturn.

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