WIREDGOV

The Iranian regime has no answers to the country’s problems and there will eventually be change. But this may not happen quickly or neatly.

As I write, it seems probable that the brutal suppression of protests in Iran has, as in the past, achieved its immediate goal. Sadly, this was always the most likely outcome. It took extraordinary courage for Iranians to risk their lives and liberty while in the absence of a credible, organised opposition in Iran and therefore the lack of a foreseeable trajectory from demonstrations to regime change. But even courage has limits. In the end, the regime’s near monopoly of violence is likely to have won out, as it did in 2009, 2018 and 2022.

It is tempting, nevertheless, to think that the regime’s days are numbered. It has no answers on the economy, corruption, government incompetence, drought, Iran’s creaking energy infrastructure or even national defence. The latest protests unified people who can no longer afford rocketing food prices with those who have a more political or social agenda. The Iranian people have had enough – surely something has to give?

That could be right. But over the last twenty years I have heard so many forecasts of regime change in Iran (and, indeed, of the death of the Supreme Leader) that I have learned to be cautious. The day could come when the Iranian security forces are no longer willing to fire on their own people. And perhaps fault lines within and around the regime will widen to a point where there is a viable alternative.

But neither of those eventualities looks imminent. Some members of the security forces did resign rather than join the crack-down. But not, so far as we know, in significant numbers. And there are divided opinions within the regime, not least between the circle around President Pezeshkian and the Supreme Leader and security chiefs. But the differences are about futile ways to make a broken system work better, not how to replace it.

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