WIREDGOV

The military operations against Iran have killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and begun a war that threatens to engulf the region, marking Roaring Lion and Epic Fury as significant violent events.

For weeks, the focus was on diplomacy, with the foreign ministers of Iran and Oman making positive signals about the talks with the US. An interim understanding to slow Iran's nuclear activities and avoid confrontation seemed possible. In Israel, however, the focus was different. While monitoring diplomatic efforts, Israeli security highlighted concerns about the gap between potential nuclear agreements and the ongoing threats from Iran, which extend to ballistic missiles and proxy networks. For Israel, a nuclear slowdown that does not address these broader issues will not significantly shift the regional balance, underscoring the rationale behind Operation Roaring Lion.

This is not Israel’s first round against Iran. On 24 June 2025, following the ceasefire that ended the so-called ‘Twelve-Day War’, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared victory. Regarding the nuclear programme, he said: ‘We sent it down the drain.’ On ballistic missiles, he declared: ‘We destroyed Iran’s missile production industry.’ Yet the previous war exposed a vulnerability that no public declaration could erase: Israel’s home front is not hermetically sealed. Even interception rates above 90% cannot prevent tragedy when a single missile penetrates. The recent strike in Beit Shemesh, which killed nine civilians, is a reminder that strategic calculations are lived daily by ordinary citizens. This is where the gamble lies.

Before the current escalation, a recent survey by INSS (The Institute for National Security Studies in Israel) indicated that 50.5% of Israelis supported an independent Israeli strike on Iran if the United States refrained, while 72.5% believed Israel’s air defence systems were sufficient in the event of an Iranian attack. Public confidence was strong, but that excitement doesn’t always translate into resilience when faced with ongoing challenges. In Israel, people are starting to wonder not just if Iran's capabilities can be weakened, but how long they can withstand the constant threat of missile attacks. It's a tough reality that weighs heavily on everyone’s minds.

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