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The US and Israel recently (28 February 2026) made a first strike at regime change in Iran, initiating a battle that is existential for Tehran's leadership. The shape of the conflict is being determined now, with much at stake across the Gulf.

By Burcu Ozcelik, with contributions from Tamer Badawi and Alaa Zoubi.

With the scale of US force build-up in the region and the noise of speculation in recent days, achieving true tactical surprise was always going to be difficult. If anything, initiating operations in daylight may have been the closest available option.

For weeks, the core question has been which option US President Trump would pick from the menu his military planners would have put in front of him. The spectrum ran from limited, tightly-scoped strikes designed to further degrade elements of Iran’s nuclear programme to a broader campaign aimed at regime-change. In the days leading up to today, US-signalling was notably inconsistent, mixing restraint with threat inflation. Days ago, Vice President JD Vance said that there was ‘no chance’ the US will get into prolonged Middle East war.

Today’s announcement of ‘major combat operations’ under operation Epic Fury delivered by Trump’s 8-minute statement finally offers more clarity on the end state desired by the US: ‘To the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.’ Later, he said that his main concern is ‘freedom’ for the Iranian people, and that the US is working to make Iran a place that’s ‘safe.’ Read plainly, that is not the language of a limited, discrete operation designed solely to degrade specific capabilities.

Trump has opted for a wider more comprehensive operation against multiple targets and locations than was predicated. A wide range of military sites and installations have been struck across Iran in the early hours of this operation. If Iran’s response produces American casualties, the Trump administration will face sharper scrutiny from Congress and a public that is wary of open-ended Middle East entanglements.

Israel’s threat perception and strategic intent were far less ambiguous. Since the 7 October Hamas attacks, Israeli officials and analysts have consistently framed Iran as the ‘head of the snake’ driving the multi-front campaign against Israel and have argued that the centre of gravity sits in Tehran.

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