WIREDGOV

Showing Russia that Ukraine can sustain its resistance while expanding the costs on the Kremlin is the only path towards a settlement on durable terms.

As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year both Russia and Ukraine are under increasing strain. For Ukraine the question is whether it can bring about a mutually hurting stalemate leading to a ceasefire. For Russia, the plan remains to exhaust Ukraine’s capacity to resist. Under current conditions, however, it is more dangerous in both Kyiv and the Kremlin to stop fighting.

International attention has become fixated on the negotiations imposed on the parties by the US. Washington has worked its way towards offering Ukraine security guarantees if Ukraine is prepared to abandon the remainder of Donbas. At the same time the US’s rhetoric towards Europe and its National Security Strategy has undermined confidence that these guarantees would be honoured, while the territory that Ukraine is being asked to evacuate comprises its defensive belt, such that withdrawal would require its forces to move onto unprepared and indefensible terrain. The result is that any collapse of a ceasefire during implementation would leave Ukraine in a much-weakened position militarily. In short, the US has a bad offer.

The Russians, meanwhile, are maintaining a maximalist position. The Russians believe they can sustain the war into 2027 and perceive the ongoing process of negotiations as a vehicle for driving a wedge into the transatlantic alliance. Europe is rearming, but it is taking time, such that many European states feel a sudden ceasefire on unfavourable terms would expose the continent to grave risks. The White House wants a ceasefire quickly to pave the path towards renewed economic engagement with Russia. But with Russia spending approximately $500 billion a year on defence (when measured by purchasing power parity) and with little prospect of this shrinking in the event of a ceasefire, the removal of sanctions is perceived in Europe to be highly dangerous. The US and EU are therefore diametrically opposed in their objectives.

The Russian economy can keep up the war, but as reserves dwindle and debt grows, it also becomes more vulnerable to shocks. The question is whether Europe is prepared to apply the pressure

At the same time, the US has halted meaningful military assistance to Kyiv, even obstructing European purchases of US materiel through the PURL framework. Although European defence industry is expanding production Kyiv remains short of critical supplies. European unity is also under sustained attack from Russian subversion, and the combination leaves the Kremlin hoping that current levels of support for Ukraine may fade, directly impacting the battlefield situation.

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