WIREDGOV

While STC controlling the majority of Yemen’s southern littoral may constrain the Houthis’ ability to operationally expand attacks into the Gulf of Aden, the benefit may outweigh the costs.

The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) launched a rapid military offensive across southern Yemen on 2 December 2025, seizing control of key districts in Hadramout, the country’s most resource-rich governorate, and consolidating its hold over Aden, the seat of the internationally recognized government, and large stretches of the southern coastline.

The operation represents the most consequential territorial shift since the 2022 UN-brokered truce, reshaping not only Yemen’s internal balance of power but also the broader security architecture of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The UAE views southern Yemen as a key area of influence due to its resources and proximity to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and major global shipping routes, placing it in a strong position to broaden its ambitions as a maritime security actor. The STC’s rapid territorial expansion risks consolidating Houthi (also known as Ansar Allah) control in north-western Yemen, further marginalising the internationally recognised government. The takeover of large swathes of the south has created friction with Saudi-backed government forces and complicated the UN-backed fragile ceasefire with the Houthi movement and broader peace efforts in Yemen. If this dynamic hardens, it could entrench a de facto North-South division, overturning Yemen’s unification of 1990.

The offensive brought STC forces into direct confrontation with the Saudi-supported internationally recognised government, represented by the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), and its allies, including the Hadramawt Tribal Alliance, led by Sheikh Amr bin Habreish. In late November, Habreish deployed fighters to the PetroMasila oil infrastructure, Yemen’s largest oil company, resulting in the facility halting production. Sources in PetroMasila interviewed for this piece noted that the Saudi committee has urged the company to resume production to ensure that the Yemeni government can continue meeting its obligations towards the public sector.

Established in 2017 and composed of a coalition of southern armed factions and allied tribal groups, the STC is formally part of the UN-recognised Yemeni government but also presents itself as a representing a southern national movement. It is largely trained, supplied and financed by the United Arab Emirates, drawing on the support of Emirati-sponsored paramilitary units such as the Security Belt Forces, Giants Brigades and Hadrami Elite Forces.

The STC claims that its Operation ‘Promising Future’ aims to disrupt and dismantle the smuggling operations that have become entrenched in Hadhramaut ‘benefiting the terrorist Houthi militias and into hotbeds for the activities of extremist organisations such as ISIS and al-Qaeda . . . Given this reality, we state unequivocally that the South will never be a corridor for threatening regional security, a haven for terrorism or a logistical lifeline for the terrorist Houthi militias.’

Although Saudi Arabia and the UAE entered the Yemen war as coalition partners, their strategic goals have diverged substantially

However, the collapse of Yemeni government authority in the east and south-territories – areas outside Houthi control – creates a strategic vacuum that undermines stabilisation aims. With the PLC increasingly unable to consolidate governance and maintain security and public service delivery, its legitimacy erodes. This means the Houthis face fewer constraints in consolidating their western coastal strongholds and disruptive capabilities in Red Sea shipping lanes. The fragmentation within the Saudi-led coalition, now intensified by the STC takeover, solidifies Houthi dominance in the north-west and heightens risk to maritime security.

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