WIREDGOV

World events and the oil price are likely to determine the future sanctions strategy of Ukraine’s allies. It is time to finally focus on crypto.

Back in February, just a few short weeks ago, Ukraine’s western allies were planning a further blow against Russia’s primary source of revenue, oil. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen noted that ‘Russia will only come to the table with genuine intent if it is pressured to do so’, promising the introduction of ‘a full maritime services ban for Russian crude oil [that] will slash further Russia's energy revenues and make it more difficult to find buyers for its oil’. More ships were to be sanctioned by the EU – and indeed were by the UK – and the oil price cap, the cause of such blatant and ongoing sanctions circumvention by Russia was to be essentially rendered redundant.

European nations were also displaying increased willingness to board – although not seize – tankers supporting Russia’s circumvention of oil-related sanctions, with action by France and Belgium and tough talk (but no action) from the UK too.

At this time the price of (Brent crude) oil was approximately $65 per barrel, Russia was making little profit from its sales and the global oil market was loose.

Fast forward six weeks, throw in an intense aerial bombardment of Iran by Israel and the US, retaliatory air strikes by Tehran against Israel and Arab neighbours (including against their energy production installations), and the effective closure of the world’s energy aorta, the Straits of Hormuz, despite a tentative ceasefire, and the picture – and decision calculus of the Western sanctions coalition – looks very different.

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