WIREDGOV

The Government Office for Science (GOS) has recently published its Net Zero Technology Outlook, providing a strategic evidence base to inform research, innovation and decision-making in support of the country’s net zero ambitions. The document assesses technology readiness and certainty across five major emitting sectors (and 18 sub-sectors), identifying the likely technology mix needed to reach net zero by 2050.

The sector’s assessed in the document are as follows:

• Industry: steel, cement, chemicals, glass and ceramics, and food and drink
• Transport: surface transport, maritime and aviation
• Heat and buildings: heating and cooling, energy efficiency and building design
• Agriculture, land use and waste: agriculture, land use and nature-based solutions, and waste
• Power: variable renewables, clean firm power, clean dispatchable power, energy storage and system flexibility, and transmission and distribution

Key framework and approach

The report evaluates technologies using two different measures, these being technology and market readiness level (TMRL), or how close technologies are to full adoption at the scale needed by 2050, and technology certainty level (TCL), the current confidence that specific technologies will be part of the final 2050 mix.

GOS has used this dual assessment to provide clarity on which technologies are mature and certain versus those that are emerging or speculative but potentially disruptive.

Sector readiness varies significantly

Whilst the report can be read to understand the TMRL and TCL across each of the 18 sub-sectors, including in-depth analysis of the research, development and demonstration of the technologies outlined, some key analysis can be found in the variance shown by different sectors.

For instance, the power sector shows the clearest pathway with offshore wind, solar, and nuclear forming the backbone, supported by energy storage and smart grid technologies. Heat pumps and building efficiency measures also demonstrate strong technology maturity.

Meanwhile, industrial decarbonisation presents more complex challenges, with hydrogen-based steelmaking, high-temperature electrification, and CCUS deployment still developing. Transport electrification is progressing rapidly for surface vehicles, while maritime and aviation depend on emerging alternative fuels.

Finally, agriculture remains particularly challenging, expected to be a net emitter by 2050 due to inherent methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock and fertilisers, despite technological advances in feed additives and precision farming.

This variance in readiness levels creates complex policy challenges. Where technologies are mature and certain, policymakers can invest with confidence in deployment and scaling. However, sectors with emerging or uncertain technologies require different approaches – balancing support for multiple technology pathways while avoiding premature commitment to solutions that may not prove viable at scale. The report emphasises that close collaboration with industry will be essential to navigate these uncertainties, ensuring that policy frameworks can adapt as technologies mature and market conditions evolve.

Critical cross-cutting technologies

The report identifies hydrogen, biomass, and greenhouse gas removals/CCUS as technologies that will underpin multiple sectors.

Hydrogen emerges as essential for industrial processes where electrification is difficult, alternative fuel production, and long-duration energy storage, while biomass faces significant supply constraints relative to potential demand, requiring careful prioritisation across competing uses.

CCUS and greenhouse gas removal technologies are positioned as necessary solutions for sectors that cannot fully decarbonise, particularly cement production, aviation, and managing residual emissions across multiple industries.

Beyond tech development

The document rightly emphasises that achieving net zero requires more than technological innovation alone, despite its importance. System integration, infrastructure development, workforce training, and supply chain resilience emerge as equally critical enablers. For example, the report underscores that electricity demand will double by 2050, requiring massive infrastructure scaling alongside technology deployment.

Implications for digital technology

Digitalisation appears as a common thread across all sectors, from precision agriculture and smart energy management to AI-enabled manufacturing and grid optimisation. This presents significant opportunities for technology companies in areas including predictive maintenance, system integration, and data-driven process optimisation.

The central challenge now lies in aligning investment, regulation, and innovation ecosystems to ensure these technologies mature at the required scale and pace for a

net zero economy. techUK members are uniquely positioned at the forefront of this transformation, possessing the digital capabilities essential for system integration and the expertise to bridge the gap between emerging technologies and real-world deployment across critical sectors.

Climate, Environment and Sustainability Programme activities