WIREDGOV

New forecasting tools developed through a £20 million UK research programme are protecting flights, GPS and the electricity grid from severe space weather.

Illustration showing a coronal mass ejection (CME) and the subsequent impact around Earth’s magnetosphere. Credit: NASA/GSFC/SOHO/ESA

Technologies developed through the five-year SWIMMR (Space Weather Innovation, Measurement, Modelling and Risk) programme are already being used in live forecasting systems.

They help the UK respond faster to extreme space weather events.

An independent evaluation, carried out by Frazer-Nash Consultancy, highlights how the programme is transforming how the UK prepares for major solar events that can disrupt satellites, aviation and power networks.

Space weather and why it matters

Severe solar storms can disrupt technologies and infrastructure that modern society depends on every day.

These events are triggered by huge eruptions of matter from the Sun, known as coronal mass ejections, which can interfere with satellite communications, navigation systems and electricity networks on Earth.

Space weather is a top-tier national risk in the UK’s National Risk Register, in the same category as pandemic disease and major flooding, and the economic consequences could be significant.

A report published by the National Audit Office earlier this year highlighted that a 2022 estimate put the potential economic impact of a severe space weather event at £9 billion.

Forecasting a solar storm in real-time

When a powerful geomagnetic storm swept across Earth in May 2024, it brought a rare display of the Northern Lights across the UK.

While many enjoyed the spectacle, scientists at the British Geological Survey (BGS) were keeping a close eye on something else, the effect of the aurora on the electricity grid.

Using a new forecasting system developed through the SWIMMR programme, they had previously identified which substations were most at risk of elevated earth currents generated by the aurora.

This was the first big test of the system warning operators earlier warning of dangerous electrical imbalances, helping reduce the risk of disruption to critical infrastructure during severe solar storms.

It was the first time the UK had possessed this level of operational foresight.

Building the UK’s space-weather capability

Led by the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), SWIMMR was delivered in partnership with:

• the Met Office
• BGS
• British Antarctic Survey
• RAL Space, the UK’s national space laboratory

Running between 2019 to 2024, SWIMMR brought together universities, national laboratories and industry across the UK and internationally, with STFC’s RAL Space managing the overall programme and several key projects.

Funded with £20 million from UK Research and Innovation’s (UKRI) Strategic Priorities Fund, the programme was commissioned to deliver against three major challenges by finding solutions to:

• improve the accuracy of space-weather forecasts
• expand access to reliable data from space, aircraft and ground-based sensors
• accelerate the transfer of scientific research into operational forecasting systems used by government and industry

Credit: Met Office

Building real-time space resilience

STFC’s Professor Ian McCrea, Resilient Society Theme Lead at RAL Space, and Head of the SWIMMR Programme, said:

SWIMMR has delivered a major advance in the UK’s space-weather capability, turning cutting-edge research into improved operational forecasting tools to protect satellites, aviation and the electricity grid.

It has strengthened the UK’s ability to understand and respond to severe solar activity in real-time, placing the UK among the leading nations developing operational space-weather forecasting capability, through close international collaboration.

From research to daily forecasting

The recent evaluation says that SWIMMR delivered against all three programme challenges, significantly accelerating the move from scientific research into operational space-weather forecasting.

Through the programme:

• five UK-developed forecasting models are now moving into operational use at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC)
• a new cloud-based platform has reduced the time needed to transfer forecasting models from research into operational systems from several years to approximately six months
• new measurement tools are already supplying live data to MOSWOC, helping operators respond more quickly to threats affecting satellites, communications, aviation and the power grid

Full integration into operational services is expected by the end of 2026.

Faster data, earlier warnings

Simon Machin, manager of the Met Office Space Weather Programme and meteorologist, said:

SWIMMR has fundamentally changed the way we bring space-weather research into operational forecasting.

By working directly with researchers throughout the programme, we have been able to move new models and data streams into live forecasting far more quickly than was previously possible.

That means better situational awareness during severe space-weather events and earlier warning of potential impacts affecting satellites, communications, aviation and the electricity grid.

From research to real-world impact

In total, SWIMMR comprised 11 connected projects spanning universities, national laboratories and industry partners.

Four of the projects highlight the scale of the UK’s improved preparedness for extreme space weather.

Protecting satellites in orbit

Every day, hundreds of satellites carrying GPS, weather and communications data pass through invisible belts of high-energy radiation that can damage onboard systems.

Before SWIMMR, the UK had no real-time forecasts for these regions.

The project was led by:

• NERC’s British Antarctic Survey
• Imperial College London
• University of Reading
• University of Northumbria
• The University of Sheffield
• the Met Office

It delivered the UK’s first capability to forecast high-energy electron dynamics across multiple orbits.

The model is now in pre-operational use at the MOSWOC, supporting services from navigation systems to satellite communications.

Protecting flights on polar routes

At cruising altitude on polar routes, passengers and crew receive significantly more radiation than on a standard flight, which can increase sharply during solar storms.

The University of Surrey developed and installed radiation sensors on commercial aircraft and high-altitude balloons, feeding real-time data directly to the Met Office.

Using these measurements, the University of Surrey developed ‘MAIRE+’ (Model for Atmospheric Ionising Radiation Environments).

The UK’s first real-time model of aviation radiation exposure during normal and solar storm conditions.

It is an advancement on an existing operational model, ‘MAIRE.’

An additional model, MAIRE-R, extends this modelling to very high altitudes, supporting future aviation needs, with both models now in pre-operational use at the Met Office.

Protecting the UK power grid

When a solar storm strikes, it drives invisible electrical currents through the ground and into the infrastructure built on top of it, stressing power transformers and risking outages across the grid.

Before SWIMMR, the UK lacked the modelling tools to predict where these impacts would be most severe.

Led by the BGS, this project delivered the UK’s first end-to-end forecasting system for geomagnetically induced currents.

Its value was demonstrated during the May 2024 solar storm, when the model identified the substations where transformer alarms subsequently triggered.

The National Electricity System Operator has since commissioned research with SWIMMR partners and the Met Office to better understand how extreme space weather could affect future electricity grid resilience.

Testing electronics against space weather

Modern electronics in aircraft, cars and hospital systems are rarely tested against the kind of radiation levels produced by major solar storms.

The ChipIr facility, part of STFC’s ISIS Neutron and Muon Source, has long been used to study how neutron radiation affects electronic components.

Through SWIMMR, its capabilities were upgraded and expanded with NILE (Neutron Irradiation Laboratory for Electronics).

NILE enables engineers to test how electronics perform under complementary radiation conditions to those available previously at ISIS.

It also provides an independent facility which can be used even when ISIS is undergoing scheduled maintenance.

It has also shown that solar-driven neutron events can trigger cascading failures in vulnerable components, with implications beyond the space sector.

It’s the only facility of its kind in Europe, global technology companies are now using ISIS to test network routers, data centre hardware, and high-power semiconductors.

Strengthening UK space-weather resilience

The independent evaluation concludes that SWIMMR has delivered a step-change in UK space-weather capability, spanning research, operations and industry.

Professor McCrea added:

SWIMMR has created a major advance in the UK’s space-weather capability, strengthening the ability to protect critical infrastructure, services and the wider economy from the impacts of severe solar activity.

The priority now is ensuring these advances are embedded in operational services and continue to evolve through real-world use.

Read the full independent evaluation report.

Further information

SWIMMR was funded under the UKRI Strategic Priorities Fund.

Additional information

• SWIMMR brought together more than 70 organisations and established 29 domestic and 33 international partnerships.
• Around 40 specialist roles were created or sustained during the five-year programme.
• The programme generated approximately 60 pence of additional investment for every £1 of public funding.

SWIMMR projects summary and partners. More detailed information is available in the report.

STFC-led projects:

(S1) Space and airborne radiation monitoring

Miniaturised sensors deployed on satellites, aircraft and balloons provide real-time data on radiation levels.

Led by STFC’s RAL Space, in collaboration with D-Orbit, Czech Technical University in Prague (CVUT Prague), and the University of Surrey, with data delivered to the Met Office.

(S2) Resilience testing

Upgraded neutron testing facilities allow electronics and aerospace systems to be tested against extreme radiation conditions.

(S3) Research-to-Operations platform

A cloud-based platform speeds the transfer of academic models into operational forecasting systems at the Met Office.

Led by RAL Space in partnership with the Met Office, CACI Limited (CACI), and BJSS Limited (BJSS).

(S4) Solar wind modelling (STFC)

Advanced models improve forecasting of solar wind conditions and coronal mass ejections.

Led by Aberystwyth University with the Universities of Reading and Durham.

(S5) Ground-based neutron monitoring (STFC)

New neutron monitors across the UK detect extreme solar particle events earlier.

Led by Lancaster University with AEA Harwell and Merrion Systems.

(S6) Space-weather impact study

Updated national assessments inform policy, infrastructure planning and risk management.

Delivered by Starion UK (formerly Rhea-UK) with Know.Space and the University of Northumbria.

NERC-led projects

(N1) Satellite radiation risk forecasting

Real-time forecasting tools support satellite operators across multiple orbits.

Led by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) with the Universities of Sheffield, Northumbria, and University College London (UCL).

(N2) Aviation radiation modelling

New models to quantify radiation exposure risks for passengers and crew.

Led by the University of Surrey with the British Geological Survey (BGS), Mullard Space Science Laboratory at University College London (MSSL/UCL), and the University of Central Lancashire.

(N3/N5) Ionosphere and thermosphere modelling

Improved forecasts to support GNSS navigation, high-frequency communications and satellite drag modelling.

Jointly led by the University of Birmingham with the Universities of Bath, Lancaster, Leicester, Leeds, and Southampton.

(N4) Ground effects forecasting

New models to predict geomagnetically induced currents, helping protect electricity networks and other infrastructure.

Led by the British Geological Survey (BGS) with the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), University College London (UCL), and Imperial College London.