WIREDGOV

Ukraine’s use of drone warfare has serious implications for Russian lines of communication.

Ukraine’s ‘logistical lockdown’ programme has unleashed a sustained and coordinated series of attacks on Russia’s military supply chains in recent weeks. If previous salvos targeting Russia’s infrastructure had demonstrated what Ukraine’s evolving drone capabilities were able to do, the latest campaign represented a concerned and coordinated effort to shut down Russia’s military supply chains and fuel supplies, revealing serious weaknesses in Russia’s rear defences. But the campaign also demonstrated some of the practical and political limitations of attacking infrastructure in this way.

In the latest campaign, Ukraine has zeroed in on Russia’s logistical supply chains around Crimea, particularly localised around the R-280 Novorossiya highway, which runs from Russia’s Rostov region to Crimea via the occupied territories. It is an alternative route to the Kerch Bridge, which itself has come under attack numerous times since the invasion. While an integral part of the tyl (rear), these logistics routes were believed by Russia to be deep behind the frontlines and therefore relatively immune from attack. These latest sustained attacks have proven how vulnerable Russia’s tyl can be.

Delivery routes to Crimea have been blocked – no heavy duty trucks are able to cross the Kerch Bridge, and private logistics carriers are struggling to get insurance for vehicles. The land corridor is the only route to supply the occupied territories of the south and east. As a result, truck freight is being moved in long vulnerable convoys to Crimea, with trucks rerouted onto secondary roads and protected by soldiers. Ferries across the Kerch Strait have been struck by the Ukrainian Armed Forces since 2024, rendering all three vessels out of service. Fuel storage in warehouses on the peninsula is problematic, risking explosions if sites are attacked. The problem extends not only to Crimea but also the Russian occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as parts of Russia’s south such as Belgorod. Trucks appear to be locked in traffic jams attempting to cross the pontoon bridge by the damaged Chongar bridge, easy prey for drones. Bridges such as the Genichesk, Chongar and Armyansk rail and road passages have been hit – while pontoon bridges remain operational, they are a temporary emergency measure, and cannot support large axle loads nor be adequately defended by Russian air defences.

As Ukraine has evolved its attacks on logistics, simultaneous and prolonged attacks have had a more sustained effect, creating long delays in both civilian and military cargo deliveries.

These waves of drone attacks were timed to accompany high-profile political events in Russia, causing some embarrassment. The attack on the Kronstadt naval base and oil refineries around St Petersburg coincided with Russia’s SPIEF economic forum, considered by Russian officials to be the capstone investment event of the year but which is increasingly descending into farce as obvious economic pressures mount. In a choreographed refusal to acknowledge the issue, President Putin then chose to publicly ignore a major Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow, while instead hosting the Russia Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Kazan, another investment forum scheduled around the same time as the G7.

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