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From a year of elections, to multiple summits, as well as conflict hotspots and debt burdens, 2024 will bring mixed fortunes for the African continent.

Africa in 2024 will be the second fastest-growing economic region in the world (after Asia) at 4 per cent, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but behind the headline figure is a less auspicious reality.

Fresh conflict, more military coups, the renewed Israel–Gaza conflict and the lingering Russia–Ukraine war are contributing to stifling better growth across the continent.

Many African states were already suffering due to slow post-COVID-19 recovery, climate change shocks, increased food insecurity, political instability, weak global growth and high interest rates. 33 of the continent’s states are classified as least developed. These economic shocks have pushed an estimated 55 million people into poverty since 2020 and reversed more than two decades of progress in poverty reduction.

It is not all bad news. South Africa is set to overtake Nigeria and Egypt as the continent’s largest economy in 2024, the IMF predicts. Some African regions are also expected to outperform others. East Africa, once again, is expected to perform better – location, human and physical infrastructure and politics have contributed to this trend.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.