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EXPERT COMMENT

Beijing is striving for tech self-reliance, aiming to embed intelligent technologies in its economy. But there is a tension in the strategy that could define China’s next decade.

As China concluded its annual National People’s Congress (NPC) this week, the world beyond Beijing’s Great Hall of the People looks unusually unsettled. War and instability in the Middle East are rattling global energy markets and supply chains. And geopolitical rivalries between China and the United States are sharpening competition over technology, minerals and trade. 

Judging from Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s Government Work Report delivered on 5 March, and the latest executive summary of its Five Year Plan, China’s top leadership is sending a clear signal: economic resilience and technological self-reliance are not temporary responses to pressure but long-term strategic choices.

For Beijing, the logic behind this approach is straightforward. Over the past decade, Chinese policymakers have become increasingly convinced that globalization – once the engine of the country’s meteoric growth – is becoming a source of vulnerability. 

Conflicts, geopolitical rivalry and the COVID-19 pandemic have exposed the fragility of global supply networks. And intensifying technology restrictions by advanced economies have underscored how dependence on foreign inputs can constrain national development.

The turmoil in the Gulf will only reinforce Beijing’s conviction. Instability in several of the world’s most important energy suppliers illustrates how quickly geopolitical crises can ripple through global markets. For a country like China, which remains the world’s largest energy importer and a central hub in global manufacturing networks, the war is a stark reminder of the risks inherent in overreliance on external conditions beyond its control.

In that sense, the leadership believes its pivot toward resilience was both prescient and necessary. Policies aimed at strengthening domestic supply chains, boosting advanced manufacturing, and investing heavily in strategic technologies – from semiconductors and 6G connectivity to artificial intelligence – are framed not merely as economic initiatives but as pillars of national security. 

Some published details of the 15th Five Year Plan – China’s economic blueprint – further underscore this strategic shift. The Plan seemed to offer few surprises and did not catch any global media attention this week. Yet, it showed that Beijing has elevated high-end manufacturing and digital innovation to the centre of its economic agenda. 

The work report states that the Chinese government will increase its overall national research and development spending by around 7 per cent in the next five years compared to the period between 2021 and 2025. And it also proposes to make digital economy industries account for 12.5 per cent of the overall GDP in the following five years.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.