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Climate scientists and actuaries show the sting in climate’s tail

A new report on climate risk, co-authored by a GAD actuary, is based on the latest climate research. It was a collaboration between actuaries and scientists.

A newly published report on climate risk and global warming, includes expertise and analysis from an actuary at the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD).

‘Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail’ is the second joint report focussed on climate risk from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) and the University of Exeter. It highlights some research-based findings alongside recommendations for actions to respond to these.

Assess and communicate

The report concludes that risk management techniques should be used to realistically assess and communicate climate change risks more effectively to policymakers. This in turn would support long-term policy decisions and accelerate positive tipping points.

GAD actuary Georgi Bedenham is one of the report’s co-authors and a member of the IFoA’s Biodiversity Working Party. The report was a collaboration between actuaries and Earth System scientists.

The report put forward 5 key findings based on the latest climate research:

  1. global warming accelerated in 2023 and may not be temporary
  2. increased global warming is now driving more severe impacts across the planet
  3. it’s likely we will overshoot the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold, so we’ll need to recalibrate carbon budgets
  4. Earth’s climate may be more sensitive to greenhouses gases than previously thought
  5. further warming increases the risk of triggering multiple climate tipping points

Credit: Curioso Photography, Unsplash

New framework

The report introduces a Planetary Solvency framework which would combine climate, nature, economic and societal risk assessments to assess the ability of nature to continue to provide ecosystem services to society both now and in the future.

Actuary Georgi Bedenham recently said:

“I was approached to co-author the report through my experience working on disaster-risk projects.”

“It has been a privilege to collaborate with scientists and work alongside actuaries from across the sustainability community to co-author such an important paper.”


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