WIREDGOV

EXPERT COMMENT

Apart from the heavy human cost, the return of hybrid warfare to the Democratic Republic of the Congo risks stability on the continent.

The fall of Goma to Rwandan-backed M23 rebels in late January underlines the return to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) of a model of hybrid cross-border warfare that many hoped had been left in the past. 

That it has been resurrected now suggests a rapidly changing geopolitical and security climate in Africa – one that established responses, from traditional peacekeeping to set-piece diplomacy, have proved inadequate to address. This nascent realpolitik is fraught with danger, not just for the DRC civilians caught in the conflict, but for regional and continental stability. 

The ongoing crisis in the DRC’s eastern Kivu provinces marks the third time since the end of the Second Congo War in 2003 that a group receiving significant support from Rwanda has seized DRC territory. 

The CNDP (2007-09) and the first iteration of the M23 (2012-13) achieved substantial military success against outmatched Congolese forces. But judged on their stated objectives – to protect Congo’s minority Tutsi population, destroy the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of the Congo (FDLR), and reform DRC governance – they manifestly failed. 

Instead, they tore up progress on security-sector reform, peacebuilding, development and investment, and left Congolese Tutsi embattled and isolated. The M23 was defeated by Southern African forces in 2013 after widespread international condemnation led to the removal of Rwandan support. That had seemed to sound the death knell for this blueprint of hybrid insurgency.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.