Explaining Iraq’s election results
Although the election results appear to show a shift in political support, there is a clear disparity between the popular vote and the allocation of power.
Several big stories came out of Iraq’s sixth election since the 2003 US-led invasion. The first is low voter turnout which officially at 36 per cent of eligible voters is the lowest recorded in the country’s post-2003 electoral history. With many Iraqis disillusioned with a political system which entrenches a corrupt political elite at their expense, this was expected, reflecting a trajectory of fewer Iraqis voting in each election.
More surprising is the relative success of Muqtada al-Sadr’s movement, which increased its seat tally from 54 in 2018 to 73 according to preliminary results, while its main rival from the previous election Fateh – which represents the Popular Mobilization Forces – saw a decrease from 48 to only 16.
This result suggests Sadrists have increased in popularity while Fateh’s support has declined, but the vote total reveals a different story. While the Sadrists outperformed their rival in seat count, the two sides received a similar number of votes. In fact, according to preliminary numbers, Fateh and allies received more votes than the Sadrists but secured less seats, with Fateh receiving an estimated 670,000 votes while the Sadrists received 650,000.
Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.
Latest News from
A deal on state spending can kickstart Libya’s political process19/05/2022 13:38:00
A renewed governance split in Libya is blocking progress on agreeing an electoral framework. Ending the standoff over state spending could break the impasse.
Energy for the most vulnerable remains a distant hope16/05/2022 16:43:00
Despite almost a decade of increased attention, delivering sustainable energy solutions for those forced to flee their homes is now further away than ever.
How Germany is changing its China strategy13/05/2022 16:43:00
Drawing on his recent article in International Affairs, Rafał Ulatowski analyzes Germany’s strategy on China and its implications for the wider Indo-Pacific.
Turkey’s climate opportunities and challenges10/05/2022 12:20:00
Turkey’s recent climate policy shift represents the beginning of a long transformation required to create a carbon neutral economy.
Putin’s Eurasian dream may soon become a nightmare06/05/2022 10:10:00
The Ukraine invasion has detrimental consequences for the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, a project which has been stumbling since its inception.
Why business as usual will prevail in the Philippines05/05/2022 13:38:00
The explanations for Marcos and Duterte’s impending victory lie mostly in the country’s economic, social and political divisions.
South Asia suffers from fallout of Russia’s actions03/05/2022 13:38:00
The invasion of Ukraine has caused price shocks in South Asia at a time when its countries were already struggling to cope with economic crises.
How Ukraine will change Europe's Indo-Pacific ambitions26/04/2022 12:20:00
The Russian invasion of Ukraine reinforces the reality that only France and the UK can lead a European contribution to Indo-Pacific security.