WIREDGOV

EXPERT COMMENT

Iran will be reluctant to give up the leverage it has gained in the Strait. But options exist to try and change its perspective.

On 7 April the United States and Iran announced a ceasefire, including the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait has been closed since 2 March following the outbreak of the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. 

Since the late 1980s, the Strait has enjoyed uninterrupted traffic, with no countries charging fees for transit. There have been risks to shipping in that period, from the 1990 Gulf War to threats from Iran in the mid-2010s. But shipping continued through the Strait, albeit with higher insurance costs.

But over the past month, Iran has laid sea mines, bombed ships, and charged fees for transit in order to assert its control over this vital waterway. As part of its 10-point ceasefire plan, Tehran has demanded that its control over Hormuz should continue. 

According to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, passage through the Strait will be allowed during the two-week ceasefire, under management by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). After that, Iran and Oman will charge fees on ship transit. 

Over the past month, various efforts have been made to secure shipping through the Strait. From 18-19 March, the International Maritime Organization called for a ‘safe passage framework’ to facilitate the evacuation of merchant ships and crew trapped in the Gulf by the Strait closure. 

On 2 April, the UK held talks with over 40 countries to discuss options to press Iran to re-open the Strait. A few days later, the United Nations Security Council voted on a resolution from Bahrain and Gulf Cooperation Council countries about using protective measures to re-open the Strait. The resolution ultimately failed.  

Meanwhile, very few ships have transited the Strait since the ceasefire was announced. As such, the ceasefire has only created more uncertainty about transit through the Strait, further deterring commercial shipping. 

The question remains: how can the Strait be re-opened safely – and kept open for the future? It is a complex challenge, interconnected with negotiation with the US. But options exist that could help influence Tehran’s thinking.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.