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The government’s spending plans mean it will struggle to narrow gaps in educational outcomes, address the crisis in the SEND system and tackle teacher shortages by the end of this parliament, warns a new Institute for Government report funded by the Nuffield Foundation. 

The latest in the IfG’s annual Performance Tracker series, published yesterday, is a new analysis of falling pupil numbers, SEND and financial pressures facing the education system, staffing, and performance of schools in England. 

It finds that the government’s ‘opportunity mission’ – to break the link between a child’s background and their future success – will be difficult to achieve without a far more joined-up approach to SEND reform. And its plan to tackle workforce pressures will only succeed if it is more closely tied to current teacher shortages.  

Balancing these pressures will be extremely difficult within the budget Labour has set for the coming parliament.  

Key findings in the report include: 

• The equivalent of 23,000 primary school classrooms are empty across England, the highest number since records began in 2009–10.
• London’s classrooms are emptying nearly two times faster than any other region’s: since 2018–19, its primary schools have lost 8.1% of their pupils – a drop of 55,200, or around 2,060 classes.
• Coastal primary schools have also been hit particularly hard, losing 4.7% of their pupils since 2018–19, compared to 3.4% in non-coastal primaries.
• Two-thirds of state special schools are now operating over capacity.
• Spending on SEND has grown from £6.7bn in 2012/13 to £11.1bn in 2025/26, a two-thirds (66%) increase.   
• The average education, health and care plan costs £1,000 more than the funding it attracted in 2023/24.
• Pupils with education, health and care plans now miss a full day of secondary school every week, on average.
• In 2023–24, there were an average of five suspensions in every secondary school class, more than double the highest rate seen pre-pandemic.
• Suspensions are now 10 times more common among pupils living in the most deprived areas than among those in the least deprived areas. 

Performance Tracker 2025: Schools

It will be extremely difficult for the government to meet its education priorities within the budget it has set for the coming parliament.

Read the report

Amber Dellar, report author: “The government has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. The system’s slow adjustment to falling pupil numbers further stretches that budget, leaving money increasingly tied up in empty classrooms. And with no clear strategy to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, the government is struggling to keep its education priorities on track. That leaves children with special educational needs and those from low-income backgrounds without the support they need, as gaps in attendance and outcomes widen.” 

Mark Franks, Nuffield Foundation: “This report highlights the complex mix of challenges facing primary and secondary schools in England. The current system for supporting and funding children with additional needs is fragmented and hasn’t kept pace with the changing needs of the population. In addition, falling pupil numbers, financial pressures, and staffing shortfalls all threaten to derail government plans to close the education and outcome gaps for disadvantaged pupils. With limited fiscal headroom in current spending plans, scope to address these issues is constrained, leaving ministers with tough choices about how to tackle competing priorities.”