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EXPERT COMMENT

The Trump administration has given mixed messages about its support for a potential Kurdish uprising, which would face a range of challenges against an uncertain backdrop.

More than a week into the ongoing US-Israeli air strikes on Iran, the war has no clear endgame in sight. In an increasingly complex situation, the US does not appear to have a settled and coherent strategy, with the Trump administration voicing wide-ranging and shifting goals and justifications. 

Amid this uncertainty, US President Donald Trump appeared to encourage the Kurdish groups in Iran to rise up against the Iranian regime, before appearing to reverse his position. On 5 March, six days after the US and Israel launched their first strikes, Trump said of a potential Kurdish military action that ‘it’s wonderful that they want to do that, I’d be all for it.’ But just two days later, he told reporters that ‘I don’t want the Kurds to go into Iran…The war is complicated enough as it is.’ 

In practice, the US and Israel have been heavily bombing targets in Kurdish areas in western Iran. This has been seen as aiming to potentially prepare the ground for Kurdish parties based in the region and across the border in Iraq to launch an offensive against the regime. 

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.