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EXPERT COMMENT

Regime change in Iran could secure election victory. But much depends on President Trump. And the risks for Israel’s diplomatic position – and even its US alliance – are high.

If there is an issue that unites the vast majority of Israelis, it is that Iran poses an existential threat to the Jewish state. Moreover, most believe there is only a military solution to this danger, not a diplomatic one. Hence the joint US-Israeli military campaign against the Islamic Republic is not only a response to recent developments. It has been brewing for more than two decades and has its roots in the 1979 Iranian Revolution. 

What is somewhat novel on this occasion is the candour with which the leadership of Israel has stated that the war’s objective extends beyond eliminating Iran’s military threat to pursuing regime change in Tehran. That position was immediately and unequivocally endorsed by opposition leader Yair Lapid, along with the rest of the Zionist opposition parties. 

Over the past few weeks, there has been a growing sense of inevitability about an imminent US-Israeli attack on Iran. The suspicion was that negotiations in Geneva, and reports about progress made, were a mere smoke screen, part of a deception and psychological war to lull the Iranian leadership into a false sense of security. 

It largely worked, at least for the open gambit of this war, which saw Iranian leadership, as was the case in the 12-day war last June, caught by surprise – with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei killed in the first wave of Israeli strikes.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.