WIREDGOV

EXPERT COMMENT

Recent developments on Ukraine’s borders show signs of further escalation. It is vital to believe the Kremlin may use military force against Ukraine again.

The Kremlin’s announcement in mid-February of a ‘partial withdrawal’ of several Russian military units from occupied Crimea and other places around Ukraine’s border must – unfortunately – be understood as smoke and mirrors to conceal Russia’s intentions.

Moscow is not de-escalating the current standoff – quite the contrary. Ukraine is already under siege and critical national infrastructure was hit by a record-sized denial of service cyberattack on 15 February.

The Kremlin seems willing to use force against Ukraine again, and the situation remains extremely tense on the ground. More Russian troops are reaching full combat readiness and positioned only a few hours away from the border as well as in Belarus – for the Allied Resolve drills – and on the Black Sea coast. Belarus also announced Russian troops would remain after the end of the military exercise.

More offensive military hardware has also been moved closer to the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, other military units have been mobilized in the past few days closer to Ukraine, with tactical orders reportedly being given – this contests Russian claims of ‘withdrawal’ or willingness to de-escalate.

The latest deployments are especially worrying because there is now a short window for military operations, and they also show the General Staff has planned for specific battles and not just a generic war. From a purely logistical point of view, Russian troops in combat-ready positions cannot stay deployed on such a high level of combat readiness for long before they must move – either back to their base or against Ukraine.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.