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EXPERT COMMENT

Victory for President Samia Suluhu Hassan and her CCM party is assured after a crackdown on the opposition. But this result could affect Tanzania’s longer-term ambitions.

Tanzania’s general election on 29 October is a historic moment in one respect. President Samia Suluhu Hassan – who came to power after the sudden death of her predecessor John Magufuli in 2021 – will be on the ballot for the first time. Her widely anticipated victory would be only the third time a woman has been popularly elected as president of an African country. 

But beyond this, the polls are more of a historical relic.

Not since before the advent of multi-party democracy in Tanzania has the ruling CCM party, in power since independence, faced so little competitive opposition.

Opposition leader Tundu Lissu has been imprisoned since April on treason charges, with his CHADEMA party banned from the election. Another prominent contender and ruling party defector, Luhaga Mpina, is barred from running.

Voter registration in 1990 – the final poll under the one-party system – stood at 7.3 million, while today the electoral commission reports over 37 million people are eligible to vote. Despite the size of the electorate increasing fivefold, Tanzanians are left with a similar lack of choice.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.