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EXPERT COMMENT

ANC domination is anticipated to give way to national and provincial coalition deal-making between very different parties. But the constitution was designed to accommodate this change.

South Africa’s ruling ANC party launched its manifesto last week, but the background for the event was worrying for party leaders. 

Polls indicate that 2024’s general election, scheduled for 29 May, could see the ANC get below 50 per cent of the vote for the first time since 1994 – bringing about multi-party government for the first time. That will be a significant inflection point for South Africans, and for the region. 

But progress towards democratic pluralism would be a fulfilment of South Africa’s constitution, which imagined a more diverse political landscape, and is intentionally structured around quasi-federalist political institutions and consociationalism.

In some ways, moving beyond ANC domination might be seen as progress. But coalitions have a poor record in South African politics at the local level, and the general election could be the beginning of five years of volatility, with local elections slated for 2026.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.