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EXPERT COMMENT

Visiting Israel and the Lebanon border on Monday, I am struck by how far off peace seems, and how dangerous the confrontation with Hezbollah remains a year after 7 October.

Paging devices used by Hezbollah forces in Lebanon and Syria exploded near-simultaneously on 17 September, leaving at least nine dead and 2800 injured according to local reports. This is widely assumed to be the work of Israel. If so, the scale of the attack, as well as its theatrical nature, could be seen as a bid by Israel’s military and intelligence forces to repair their reputation, left in tatters following the 7 October Hamas attacks.

It could also represent an attempt by Israel to address the problem of its northern border. Visiting the area this week, I have seen the effects of the continual exchanges of rocket and missile attacks, which have led to 60,000 people being evacuated from Israeli towns. According to reports, Lebanese villages have also been evacuated as a result of the fighting.

Perhaps intended as a signal to Hezbollah (and its supporter Iran) to back off, the pager attacks will not enable Israel’s government to return residents to their homes. On the contrary, the attacks risk escalating the simmering conflict on the northern border into the regional war that the US and many of Israel’s neighbours have worked hard to avoid.

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